Data Reference

The methods and datasets used in our model

Data Model Reference

Opportunity Insights published a paper on how it predicts economic recovery by measuring consumer spending, unemployment claim, number of job posting and other key variables at high-frequency, granular level using anonymized data from private companies.
This paper is important and highly relevant to our project as it:

  • Shows how private sector data can be used for a more granular view
  • Shows how to study an economic impac.
  • Shows how to construct a machine learning model to make prediction

Data Source

It is essential to find granular enough dataset in order to provide the regional insights to the City of Miami. The following data are in zip-code level, thus provide the desired granularity.

  • Independent Variable: Census demographic data
    Zip code level demographic data such as education attainment, household income, and available labor force could play an important role in determining the outlook of COVID-19 outbreak and subsequently the recovery of the local economy. The zip code level data was collected from the United States census bureau website via API request. 5 Year estimate data was used because it covered the largest sample size and resulted in the highest precision.
  • Independent Variable: Covid case data
    Local COVID-19 case count could affect the timeframe of reopening policy and the speed of business recovery. The zip code level data was collected from Tampa Bay Times via HTTP request.
  • Independent Variable: Building permit data
    Miami city government maintained a record of all building permit status since 2014. The change of permit status throughout the year might indicate a change of small business population in the area. The data was collected from the eStart website via API request.
  • Dependent Variable: Zillow housing data
    Due to the limited access to third party datasets that provide consumer spending such as credit card transaction data, the Zillow Housing Value Index and the Zillow Observed Rent Index were used as proxies to model the overall economics activities in the city of Miami. The zip code level data was collected by downloading it from Zillow research website.